The S&P 500 just logged its worst weekly performance since March 2020, dropping 9.1% and wiping out trillions in market cap. While the market’s steep sell-off may seem like a sudden reaction to tariff headlines, the stage had been set long before. For weeks, we’ve seen signs of growing institutional risk aversion, and last week’s collapse was the result of that pressure boiling over.
Now, heading into this week, investors are bracing for another storm of catalysts—from March inflation data and bank earnings to the long-awaited tariff announcement and Fed minutes. Let’s take a look back at what caused the sell-off and what’s on the radar now.
The Sell-Off: More Than Just Tariffs
Although the Trump administration’s surprise announcement of reciprocal tariffs triggered a wave of panic, the bigger picture reveals that hedge funds and asset managers were already heading for the exits. Throughout March, institutional data showed record-setting outflows, particularly from U.S. equities, with CTAs now short over $24.7B in U.S. stocks.
Meanwhile, retail investors bought the dip, pouring a record $40 billion into stocks and ETFs in March. But as markets fell deeper, these weaker hands proved quick to cut losses—leading to a self-reinforcing wave of selling.
What’s Ahead This Week
After a chaotic start to April, here are the major events and data points that could steer the market next:
📅 Monday – April 7
- Fed Governor Adriana Kugler speaks (10:30 AM)
- Consumer Credit (3:00 PM)
- Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee TV interview (7:00 PM)
📅 Tuesday – April 8
- NFIB Optimism Index (6:00 AM) – Expected to drop to 97.4 from 100.7
- San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks (2:00 PM)
- Investors also await clarity on the scope of reciprocal tariffs set for Friday
📅 Wednesday – April 9
- Wholesale Inventories (10:00 AM)
- Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks (11:00 AM)
- Fed Minutes (2:00 PM) – One of the week’s most critical events
Markets will analyze the March FOMC meeting minutes for deeper insight into how divided (or united) policymakers are on inflation, rate cuts, and QT.
📅 Thursday – April 10
- Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM)
- March CPI Inflation Report (8:30 AM)
- Headline CPI forecast: 0.1% MoM | 2.6% YoY
- Core CPI forecast: 0.2% MoM | 3.0% YoY
- Senate Testimony: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman (10:00 AM)
- Multiple Fed Speakers throughout the day
📅 Friday – April 11
- PPI Inflation (8:30 AM)
- Headline PPI forecast: 0.2%
- Core PPI forecast: 0.3%
- Preliminary Consumer Sentiment (10:00 AM)
- Fed Presidents Musalem and Williams speak
Earnings Season Begins: Big Banks Lead the Way
In addition to economic data, Q1 earnings season kicks off, with the major banks reporting results later this week. After recent volatility and rate uncertainty, investors will be focused on:
- Loan growth & credit quality
- Commentary on consumer health
- Exposure to market swings from trading desks
Strong earnings could help stabilize sentiment—but any disappointing guidance could amplify downside.
Final Thoughts: Prepare for More Volatility
Last week’s rout wasn’t just about tariffs—it was the culmination of a broader risk reset that began in early March. With positioning still fragile, inflation prints and Fed communication will be under a microscope. Combine that with the rollout of new tariffs on April 5 and additional ones expected April 9, and the stage is set for continued volatility.
Whether we stabilize or spiral lower will depend on how the market absorbs this week’s trifecta of inflation data, Fed signals, and earnings results.
Stay nimble, stay disciplined—and above all, stay informed.