The upcoming week is shaping up to be a critical one for markets, as a packed earnings calendar, key economic data releases, and a parade of Fed speakers collide with growing investor unease over policy uncertainty and macroeconomic stagnation.
With the S&P 500 down 14% from its February highs and economic risks piling up, traders are looking for clarity—or at least signs that the worst may be priced in.
Macro Viewpoint: Fear of Stagflation Lingers
Markets continue to wrestle with on-again, off-again U.S. trade policies, stalled negotiations with China, and an early Q1 earnings season that has yet to inspire confidence. Add to that a drumbeat of data suggesting slowing growth, sticky inflation, and softening consumer sentiment, and it’s no surprise that stagflation is back in the headlines.
According to Goldman Sachs, the U.S. macro baseline now points to stagflation risk. That means:
- Sluggish growth
- Elevated unemployment
- Persistent inflation
It’s the worst of all worlds for investors—and a key reason why equity drawdown risk remains elevated heading into late April.
This Week’s Impact Snapshot
Here’s what we’re watching in the week ahead:
🔹 Monday – April 21
- 10:00 AM: U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (March)
Forecast: -0.5% vs. -0.3% prior
A continued decline would signal worsening forward-looking momentum.
🔹 Tuesday – April 22
- Fed Speakers: Harker (9:30 AM), Kashkari (2:00 PM), Barkin (2:30 PM)
Expect remarks on inflation, labor, and policy uncertainty.
🔹 Wednesday – April 23
- 9:45 AM:
- Flash Services PMI (April): Forecast 53.0 (Prior 54.4)
- Flash Manufacturing PMI (April): Forecast 49.3 (Prior 50.2)
Manufacturing is expected to contract—again—a key concern for growth.
- 10:00 AM: New Home Sales (March)
- 2:00 PM: Fed Beige Book
- Fed Speakers: Goolsbee, Musalem, Waller, Bostic, Hammack (various times)
🔹 Thursday – April 24
- 8:30 AM:
- Initial Jobless Claims (April 19): Forecast 220,000
- Durable Goods Orders (March): Forecast 1.4%
- Core Durable Goods (Business Investment): Forecast -0.3%
- 10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales (March)
- 5:00 PM: Kashkari speaks again
🔹 Friday – April 25
- 10:00 AM: Final Consumer Sentiment (April) – Forecast 50.8
If sentiment remains at record lows, expect continued pressure on risk assets.
Earnings Spotlight: Big Names Reporting
This week’s corporate earnings calendar is loaded with market-moving names, including:
- $TSLA (Tesla)
- $VZ (Verizon)
- $BA (Boeing)
- $T (AT&T)
- $GOOGL (Alphabet)
Given the macro backdrop, investors will be looking closely at forward guidance, margin pressure, and commentary on consumer demand and global uncertainty. Misses—or cautious outlooks—could further weigh on markets already struggling to find their footing.
Final Thoughts: Buckle Up
We’ve said it before: you rarely know the market bottom in real-time. But one thing is clear—risk is still elevated, and this week won’t be short on catalysts. From inflation fears and policy whiplash to high-stakes earnings and conflicting Fed commentary, traders should brace for continued volatility.
The tone set by this week’s data and earnings could determine whether the market starts to stabilize—or continues sliding toward deeper lows.
Stay sharp, manage risk, and trade with discipline.