The S&P 500 closed last week flat, and while the Fed held rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% as expected, investor conviction still feels shaky. Markets are in a holding pattern, stuck between mixed economic signals, tariff-related uncertainty, and a critical stretch of upcoming data.
With quarter-end positioning, April tariffs, and the next jobs report (NFP) on 4/4 looming, many traders are staying cautious. Though some signs of stabilization have emerged, confidence remains muted—not due to valuations or technicals, but macro and geopolitical overhangs. Until there’s clearer direction from policy makers, market participants may continue to keep risk tightly managed and short-term focused.
This week, the calendar is full of high-impact economic releases that could break the current stalemate.
Key Events This Week
Monday – March 24
- S&P Global U.S. Services PMI (9:45 AM ET)
Forecast: 51.5 (vs. 51.0 prior)
A measure of business activity in the services sector. A print above 50 suggests expansion. Investors will watch closely for signs of resilience or slowdown. - S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (9:45 AM ET)
Forecast: 51.5 (vs. 52.7 prior)
Manufacturing growth has cooled. A miss here could weigh on growth expectations.
Tuesday – March 25
- S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (9:00 AM ET)
Forecast: +4.4% YoY
Rising home prices may continue to fuel inflation concerns. - Consumer Confidence (10:00 AM ET)
Forecast: 95.0 (down from 98.3)
Confidence readings are expected to dip, reflecting ongoing macro unease. - New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET)
Forecast: 679,000 units
A beat could show consumer resilience; a miss would reinforce slowdown fears.
Wednesday – March 26
- Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET)
Forecast: -1.0%
A sharp drop would be another signal of softening demand. - St. Louis Fed President Musalem Speaks (1:10 PM ET)
Any policy signals will be closely watched, especially around inflation or tariffs.
Thursday – March 27
- Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET)
Forecast: 226,000
Still relatively low, but any upward trend could rattle labor market optimism. - Q4 GDP (Second Revision, 8:30 AM ET)
Forecast: 2.3%
Revisions are unlikely to surprise, but worth watching as traders adjust Q1 outlooks. - Pending Home Sales (10:00 AM ET)
Forecast: +1.0%
A rebound here may ease housing sector concerns. - Fed Speak: Richmond Fed President Barkin (4:30 PM ET)
Another chance for markets to gauge policy direction.
Friday – March 28
- PCE Inflation (8:30 AM ET)
Headline and Core PCE expected to come in at 0.3% month-over-month
YoY Core PCE forecast: 2.7%, up from 2.6%
This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and arguably the most important report of the week. - Personal Income & Spending (8:30 AM ET)
Income Forecast: +0.4%
Spending Forecast: +0.6%
These numbers will show whether consumers are still driving growth—or starting to tighten up. - Final Consumer Sentiment (10:00 AM ET)
Forecast: 57.9
Confidence remains low, likely reflecting ongoing concerns around inflation and policy.
Final Thoughts
This week could serve as a turning point. While positioning and valuations are no longer major headwinds, the lack of clear conviction in markets is tied to the uncertainty surrounding inflation trends, tariffs, and Fed policy. The upcoming data—especially PCE on Friday—could be what finally nudges investors off the sidelines.
Until then, expect traders to keep risk on a tight leash and favor clarity over speculation. As we move closer to Q2, all eyes will be on whether incoming data supports the “buy-the-cut” narrative—or just adds to the chop.